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Q2 2021 Letter
Investment Management Service - US CPI Inflation Chart

Q2 2021 Letter

In this quarterly letter we would first like to discuss Avenue’s view of inflation, which has quickly become the main topic for investors. Leading from our view on inflation is our broader thinking about how nothing is normal in our current financial world. But we believe we need to get used to it; we are living in a new normal. Our conclusion continues to be that we have to stay invested, but more than ever it matters what we own and it certainly will always matter how much we pay for our investments. Lastly, we would like to give an update on the Avenue Tail Hedge portfolio now that we have been incorporating this strategy for a full year.

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Inflation vs. The Velocity of Money
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Inflation vs. The Velocity of Money

In this episode, Bill Harris and Bryden Teich have an in-depth discussion about the relationship between inflation and the velocity of a money.

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First Quarter Recap – Are Markets in a Sweet Spot?
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First Quarter Recap – Are Markets in a Sweet Spot?

In the latest Avenue podcast Bill Harris and Bryden Teich provide a summary of the first quarter of 2021 and highlight some important take-a-ways from the most recent Avenue quarterly letter.

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A Case Study On: Inflation vs the Velocity of Money
Investment Management Service - Inflation vs the Velocity of Money

A Case Study On: Inflation vs the Velocity of Money

The question many investors are asking is, given this increase in money supply, is a period of higher inflation upon us? While we at Avenue believe higher inflation is likely this year, we will soon revert back to an economy with low growth and low consumer price inflation.

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Q1 2021 Letter
Investment Management Service - Interest Rates & Financial Instability

Q1 2021 Letter

In this quarter’s letter we would like to discuss Avenue’s investment strategy in relationship to the current strong overall performance of the stock market. We believe a balanced portfolio of high-quality consistent businesses is more important than ever. While interest rates may rise further, proportionally most of the move has likely already happened.

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What is a fiduciary duty & why does it matter to investors?
What is a fiduciary duty and why does it matter to investors?

What is a fiduciary duty & why does it matter to investors?

Trust, transparency and financial expertise are just a few important qualities an investor should look for when searching for the right individual to manage their wealth. In today’s marketplace, there is a significant difference among financial professionals that many investors are not aware of. There are those who have a fiduciary responsibility and those who do not.

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The Outlook for 2021
Financial Planning Marketing Call

The Outlook for 2021

In the first episode of 2021, Bill Harris and Bryden Teich discuss Avenue’s outlook for the year ahead. Throughout their conversation they highlight the dilemma that investors continue to face in a low interest rate world. Bryden touches on the persistent role that Central Banks are playing with their continued market intervention, while Bill highlights the type of investments that are included in the Avenue portfolio.

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2020 in Newspaper Headlines
Investment Management Service - Newspaper Headlines

2020 in Newspaper Headlines

In reviewing our newspaper collection of the past year, we wanted to share a few front-page headlines that have stood out to us. These pages illustrate a story of the global stock market in 2020: beginning, middle, and end.

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March 2020 Note to Clients
portfolio management - Note to Clients

March 2020 Note to Clients

Given what last year brought to investors, we thought it would be worthwhile to highlight the note that we sent out to clients at the depths of the financial panic last March. Although it did not feel good at the time, we knew that the market environment in March was presenting us a great opportunity.

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Q4 2020 Letter
Investment Management Service - Investment Grade Bond

Q4 2020 Letter

If you had the good fortune last January to take a year-long sabbatical in the South Pacific, cutting yourself off from the world, you would be arriving back on an empty flight, landing into quarantine and economic lockdown. After checking in with your family and friends about their health, you might be emailing or calling Avenue to see how bad a global pandemic is for your investment returns.

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A Case Study On: The Return of Inflation
Investment Management Service - Inflation and Rates

A Case Study On: The Return of Inflation

After a forty-year bond market rally from a high of 18% in 1982 to the current 0.70% low today, we struggle to get excited about bonds in the short or medium term.

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November Market Update
Financial Planning Marketing Call

November Market Update

Matt Manara and Bryden Teich discuss the busy month of November for the markets and summarize how the 2020 election result and recent positive vaccine news are impacting different asset classes including stocks, bonds, and gold.

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The economy is doing so poorly, so why are financial markets going up?
Financial Planning

The economy is doing so poorly, so why are financial markets going up?

Over the course of 2020, the global economy has been forced to move through the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic. Combined with fears of a contested U.S. presidential election, social justice unrest worldwide and a new work-from-home environment, investor behaviour and the economy at large has been impacted in more ways than one.

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The Bond Market View on Government Debt
Financial Planning Marketing Call

The Bond Market View on Government Debt

In this episode Bryden Teich and Paul Gardner discuss the significant amount of government debt that has been issued thus far in 2020 and what the bond market is telling investors.

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Q3 2020 Letter
Financial Planning - Canadian Stock Market’s

Q3 2020 Letter

This pandemic period we are living through has been described as The Great Distortion for financial markets. Central banks are intervening to support the bond market and Government spending is injecting enormous amounts of money into the economy with much of it finding its way into the stock market. We know we must own stocks now more than ever to protect our wealth, given the fragility of the financial system built on too much debt.

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A Case Study On: The Valuation on Apple’s Stock
Investment Management Service - AAPL Chart

A Case Study On: The Valuation on Apple’s Stock

An examination of the valuation of Apple’s shares is an excellent way to demonstrate the extreme divergence that has taken place in the stock market in the last six months. Not much has changed in the underlying profitability of Apple. What has changed is that investors are willing to pay a mania-type multiple not seen since the 2000 dotcom bubble.

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Second Quarter Recap
Financial Planning Marketing Call

Second Quarter Recap

In this episode, Bill Harris and Bryden Teich discuss the Avenue Q2 2020 Quarterly Letter and some of the things investors should be thinking about for the second half of 2020.

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A Case Study On: Devaluation
Investment management service - Federal Debt Help By Public

A Case Study On: Devaluation

The level of US Government debt was an issue before this recent crisis. Now we believe excess debt will come to define financial markets in the coming years.

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Q2 2020 Letter
Investment Management Service - Bofa Global Investment Strategy

Q2 2020 Letter

In this quarter’s letter we would like to give our assessment of the many contradictions of financial orthodoxy in which we now find ourselves. The economy is in terrible shape and yet the stock market has had a strong rebound from the March 23rd low.

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The Federal Reserve & Real Yields
Financial Planning Marketing Call

The Federal Reserve & Real Yields

In Episode 9, Bryden Teich and Matt Manara discuss news from the recent Federal Reserve meeting and the concept of yield curve control. They highlight previous examples of yield curve control and the impact it had on real interest rates and asset prices.

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What’s Driving the Stock Market?
Financial Planning Marketing Call

What’s Driving the Stock Market?

Bryden Teich and Bill Harris discuss the partial recovery in the stock market during May and what has been driving the recent moves. They also discuss why the stock market and the underlying economy have diverged and highlight some of the fiscal and monetary policy responses that are causing this divergence. They also discuss the debate between Value vs. Growth investing in light of the current market environment.

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Assessing the Bond Market
Financial Planning Marketing Call

Assessing the Bond Market

In Episode 7, Paul Gardner and Bryden Teich give an updated assessment of fixed income markets in April 2020. They talk about the impact that bond ETF’s had during the selloff in March and highlight a few areas where they are finding value in the corporate bond market.

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Q1 2020 Letter
Investment Management Service - Ishare Investment Grade bond ETF Chart

Q1 2020 Letter

We have lived through an extraordinary few weeks. Across the country Canadians are now bracing for the full impact of the virus. Hopefully all our collective efforts at social distancing will pay off. Currently, we don’t know of anyone within our Avenue network who is ill with the virus, and we truly hope it stays that way. We give our thanks to all of you who are on the frontlines in the medical and support professions as you work tirelessly to keep Canadians safe.

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COVID-19 & The Markets
Financial Planning Marketing Call

COVID-19 & The Markets

In Episode 6, Bryden Teich and Bill Harris discuss the impact that COVID-19 has had on the markets and the global economy through the first quarter of 2020.

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Q1/ Frequently Asked Questions
investment firms toronto

Q1/ Frequently Asked Questions

We have been getting lots of questions about how our investments are faring in the face of this historic market decline. We have attempted to lay out our comments in a question and answer format.

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Market Update #2
Financial Planning Marketing Call

Market Update #2

In Episode 5, Bill Harris and Matt Manara discuss the incredible events in the global stock markets for the second week of March 2020.

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Market Update
Financial Planning Marketing Call

Market Update

In Episode 4, Bryden Teich and Bill Harris discuss the events in the stock market for the last week of February 2020 and how Avenue has been positioned for this.

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The Global Reach for Yield
Financial Planning Marketing Call

The Global Reach for Yield

In Episode 3, Matt Manara and Bryden Teich discuss the U.S. Federal deficit and how it is impacting the direction of monetary policy. They also discuss the reach-for-yield going on in corporate and high yield bond markets and discuss other risks they are seeing in the market.

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A Wave of Central Bank Liquidity
Financial Planning Marketing Call

A Wave of Central Bank Liquidity

In Episode 2, Bill Harris and Bryden Teich discuss how global stock markets are currently being impacted by central bank liquidity and relate that to previous periods of market exuberance. They also discuss the signal that the underlying economy is sending at the outset of 2020, and they discuss the outlook for the Canadian energy sector.

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The 2020 Outlook for the Bond Market
Financial Planning Marketing Call

The 2020 Outlook for the Bond Market

Bryden Teich and Paul Gardner discuss Avenue’s outlook for interest rates and Federal Reserve policy as we enter 2020. The past year saw a significant change in policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve with three interest rate cuts and a significant re-expansion of their balance sheet starting in September. The conversation touches on the economic outlook for both the United States and Canada and the impact on interest rates and stock prices.

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A Case Study On: The Degree of Confidence
Investment Management Service - Degree of Confidence

A Case Study On: The Degree of Confidence

The case study is where we discuss specific details of our investment process. Today we will tackle stock market multiples and how it relates to risk. I wish I could say we can also make it entertaining, but the subject matter probably precludes this.

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Q4 2019 Letter
Investment Management Service - Monthly Change in fed Balance Sheet

Q4 2019 Letter

This past year was a year to celebrate Avenue’s unique equity strategy where the foundation of the portfolio is built on limiting the risks we take, instead of trying to ‘beat the stock market’ in any given year. For 16 years we have developed our brand and place in the Canadian investment industry where when you think of Avenue, you think of stability. Investment stability is achieved by diversification of the portfolio, the stability of the underlying investments, and rigorous attention to avoid owning securities that we believe are overvalued.

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A Case Study On: The Valuation of WeWork
Investment Firms Toronto

A Case Study On: The Valuation of WeWork

Avenue’s stock market investment strategy is to find business that have consistent earnings and trade at a fair price. Technology is difficult to fit into these parameters because technology companies by nature have disruptive business models which don’t always result in consistent earnings. Our topic today is to show just how expensive and erratic many of these technology companies have become. We will examine the influence of Softbank’s Vision Fund and WeWork on tech venture investing.

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Q3 2019 Letter
Investment Management Service

Q3 2019 Letter

There are three distinct themes emerging that separate the world of investing and define our times.

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Why Preferred Shares are not Bond Substitutes
Investment Management Service - RBC Preffered Share Index

Why Preferred Shares are not Bond Substitutes

With Canadian bond yields dropping below 2%, these are dark days to be a bond investor. Gone are the days when one could hope for 5-7 % annual returns from the bond market. With global central bank policy using quantitative measures to lower interest rates close to zero, the global $40 trillion-dollar bond market is searching for a “normal” return.

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Q2 2019 Letter
Investment Management Service - The Canadian TSX Index

Q2 2019 Letter

We are now in record territory; a full decade of economic growth and stock market expansion has many investors fearful that we are overdue for a correction. In this quarter’s letter we make the case that the investments we hold in Avenue’s portfolios remain compelling, but at the same time we need to actively avoid certain stocks and sectors where there is excess valuation.

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