A Case Study On: Historical Bond Yields

Sometime a picture can relay information more clearly than a long-winded description.

This chart called “Ten-year US Treasuries: the end of the long decline in yields?” came to us from the Financial Times of London. Avenue’s conclusion is ten-year US rates can easily trade in the 3-4% range and not cause too much disruption. A move to the 5-6% range would be disruptive, but a move of this magnitude would be enough to trigger a recession and therefore an adjustment to lower interest rates.